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Houston Real Estate Trends is widely read by brokers, developers and other industry professionals. The newsletter is $199 per year and covers significant transactions and economic and financial news for Multifamily, Retail, Office, Industrial, Single-family and Vacant land. Click on the following for more information:
According to www.oconnordata.com, December 2009 O’Connor & Associates data indicates that Greater Houston apartment market occupancy has decreased 0.03 percentage points from the previous month and is currently 85.80% occupied, while overall rents edged up $0.001 to $0.881 per square foot. Class A ($1.164) and D ($0.628) showed an increase of $0.001 each from November’s rates. Class C rates have not changed this month and are currently $0.720, while Class B ($0.836) showed a decrease of $0.001 from November’s rates. Pre-leasing is currently underway in twenty-three communities (6,856 units) city-wide. The rate of decline in overall occupancy is slowed down as the supply pipeline continues to diminish through both deliveries and new projects being placed on hold. However, given historic absorption levels for the Houston metro area, it could be years until we reach 90% again. ____________________ Note: The multifamily projects listed herein are followed by their representative identification number as they appear in the new O’Connor & Associates ApartmentLink Online Data platform and are provided for subscriber cross-referencing. The property information contained within this database is updated on a monthly basis and accessible over the web. (Please contact us for more details.) Apartment Developments
The following chart illustrates historical apartment rental rates.
Apartment Sales
MLS home sales decreased further in November as 3,721 existing homes were sold, compared to 4,049 homes sold last month, according to the Houston Association of Realtors (HAR). Nevertheless, sales for November 2009 were significantly up 34.8% from November 2008. The median price of an existing single-family home sold in November was $142,000, up 13.6% from the same time last year, while the average home price – $182,883 – was up 12.3% from the November 2008 level. According to American MetroStudy, net sales of new homes dropped in November to 537, and are down 15% from November 2008. Realtor co-op sales represented 65.1% of gross sales for the month, but are down 25% from October. Traffic declined 16% from last year to 11,501 in November 2009. The inventory of completed speculative homes (1,061) is down nearly 42% from September last year. There are 346 spec homes under construction, which is up nearly 2% from November 2008. Overall, the 1,407 specs (both completed and under construction) are down 64% from November 2008. Nationwide sales of new single-family homes decreased in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 355,000 – 11.3% below the revised October sales rate of 400,000 and 9.0% below the November 2008 figure – according to a release by the U.S. Department of Commerce. The median sales price in November was $235,000. Privately owned housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 574,000 in November 2009, which is 8.9% above the revised October estimate but 12.4% below the revised November 2008 rate. Privately owned housing completions were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 810,000 in November, 8.7% above the revised October figure but 25.3% below the revised November 2008 figure. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, a monthly measure of builder confidence, decreased to 16 in December, on a scale where any number greater than 50 indicates that builders view sales as more good than poor. The index measuring current sales of new single-family homes decreased to 16, the index measuring sales expectations for the coming six months decreased to 26, and the index measuring the traffic of prospective buyers is currently at 13, unchanged from the revised November figure. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 6,540,000 existing homes were sold in November 2009, up 7.4% from October sales and up 44.1% from the 4,540,000 homes sold in November 2008. The median sale price was $172,600, which represents a 4.3% decrease from sale prices last year. According to the most recent report by RealtyTrac, 306,627 foreclosure filings — default notices, auction sale notices, and bank repossessions — were reported during the month of November 2009. This figure is down 8% from the previous month but up 18% from November 2008. Texas is among the nation’s 24 highest states in total foreclosure filings in November 2009. The following chart illustrates historical existing home sales.
Source: Houston Association of Realtors
The City of Houston issued permits to build 262 private single-family houses and 3 private multifamily buildings in December. Demolition permits were issued for 95 private single-family houses and 81 multifamily structures. In addition, 128 permits were issued for privately owned non-residential construction totaling $58,661,721 and 11 permits were issued for public non-residential construction. Additions, alterations, and conversions totaled $114,502,408 for the private sector and $16,167,185 for the public sector.
*The figures in this section include all categories of buildings and non-building structures
*The figures in this section include all categories of buildings and non-building structures
According to the O’Connor & Associates Third Quarter 2009 Houston Office Data Program, citywide occupancy for Houston area multi-tenant office buildings is 82.91% (Class A = 84.75%; Class B = 82.07%; Class C = 79.69%; Class D = 76.29%). The citywide quarterly multi-tenant office rental rate is $19.75 per square foot (Class A = $22.60; Class B = $17.87; Class C = $14.22; Class D = $10.78).
The following chart illustrates historical office rental rates.
Office Sales
Office Leases
According to the O’Connor & Associates Third Quarter 2009 Houston Retail Data Program, citywide occupancy for Houston area multi-tenant retail buildings is 82.98% (Regional = 87.77%; Community = 86.15%; Neighborhood = 80.79%; Strip = 77.17%). Occupancy is down 0.33 points over the last quarter and down 0.89 points over the third quarter 2008. The citywide quarterly multi-tenant retail rental rate is $1.64 per square foot (Regional = $2.91; Community = $1.66; Neighborhood = $1.24; Strip = $1.27). Retail Developments
The following chart illustrates historical retail rental rates.
Retail Sales
Retail Leases
According to the O’Connor & Associates Third Quarter 2009 Houston Industrial Data Program, citywide occupancy for Houston area operating multi-tenant industrial facilities is 81.80% (Flex = 80.32%; Bulk = 81.04%; Manufacturing = 85.11%, Service = 85.23%, Distribution = 73.97%, R&D = 72.97%). Occupancy is down 0.17 points over the last quarter and down 1.40 points over the third quarter 2008. The overall quarterly rental rates decreased $0.03 ending at $0.40 per square foot (Flex = $0.44; Bulk = $0.34; Manufacturing = $0.40, Service = $0.52, Distribution = $0.31, R&D = $0.94). Industrial Developments
Industrial Sales
Industrial Leases
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The total number of nonagricultural wage and salary jobs in the ten-county Houston area increased by about 9,300 jobs to 2,534,900 in November 2009, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. This month’s total is 88,900 fewer jobs than the 2,623,800 jobs at this time last year. Of nonagricultural employers, the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector posted the largest gain over the month at 10,100 jobs, while the largest year over year increase occurred in the Education and Health Services sector, which added 6,900 jobs. The following chart illustrates total non-agricultural employment in the Houston MSA.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Advance estimates reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce show that seasonally adjusted national retail and food services sales for November 2009 were $352.1 billion, an increase of 1.3% from October and 1.9% above November 2008. Retail trade sales in November were up 1.4% from October and 2.2% above last year’s level. Personal income increased $49.7 billion, or 0.4%, and Disposable Personal Income (DPI) increased $54.1 billion, or 0.5%, in November 2009, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) increased $47.9 billion, or 0.5%, in November 2009. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Labor reports that the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) for urban consumers increased 0.4% in November 2009 and is 1.8% higher than November 2008. The year-over-year increase in November 2009 is the first positive change since February 2009. The latest Conference Board Survey indicates that the Consumer Confidence Index increased further to 52.9 in December 2009, up 2.3 points from November. The index is an indicator of consumers’ overall assessment of current conditions, relative to a figure of 100 in 1985, the base year. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.9% in November, following a 0.3% increase in October and 1.2% in September. The index is an indicator of direction the economy is expected to take in coming months, relative to a figure of 100 in 1996, the base year. According to the Federal Reserve, industrial production increased 0.8% in November 2009 from previous month but is down 5.1% from the November 2008 level. Output in the manufacturing sector increased 1.1% and output at mines increased 2.1%, while output of utilities decreased 1.8% in November. The rate of industrial capacity utilization was 71.3% in November, which is up 0.7% from October’s revised level but down 0.9 points compared to the previous year’s level. Freddie Mac reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.93% in December 2009, up 0.05 points from November but down 0.36 points from one year ago. The average for the 15-year FRM averaged 4.39% in November 2009, up 0.05 points from November but down 0.65 points from December 2008. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (U.S. Department of Commerce) reports that third estimates of the real GDP, the output of goods and services produced by labor and property in the United States, increased at an annual rate of 2.2% in the third quarter of 2009. This increase in GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditure (PCE), exports, residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and federal government spending. The U.S. Department of Commerce reports that construction spending during November 2009 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $900.1 billion, which is 0.6% below the revised October 2009 estimate ($905.6 billion). The current figure is 13.2% below the November 2008 estimate of $1,037.3 billion. Private residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $250.7 billion in November, 1.6% below the revised October estimate of $254.9 billion. The Baker Hughes count of active domestic rotary rigs stands at 1,172 for December 2009. The current rig count is down nearly 34.3% from last year’s figure of 1,782 rigs. The rotary rig count is a census of the number of drilling rigs actually exploring for or developing oil or natural gas in the United States. The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) stood at 97.8 in November, down 0.2 percent from the previous month. The index is a monthly composite index that tracks the health and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry. This is the 25th consecutive month below 100, indicating contraction in the index of key industry indicators. According to the monthly Monster Worldwide, Inc employment index, online job demand decreased by 4 points in the month of December. The index currently stands at 115 and is 16 points below December 2008, a decrease of nearly 12.21%. Nevertheless, online demand for workers increased in 26 of the 28 major U.S. metro markets. According to the November 2009 Architecture Billings Index, developed by the American Institute of Architects, November reported an index of 42.8, down 3.3 points from the previous month (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). Both the project inquiries index and the inquiries for new projects score remained unchanged at 58.5. 1100 Louisiana (64), a 1,407,375-square-foot, Class A office tower developed and owned by Hines Interests (713-237-5657), has been awarded LEED™ Gold certification for Existing Buildings: Operations and Maintenance Green Building Rating System™ by the U.S. Green Building Council. Sustainable features currently at the property include reduced heat island effect, reduced nighttime light pollution, comprehensive commissioning, a 31.5 percent reduction in indoor potable water use, building waste diversion of 50%, and green cleaning. This 55-story, 29-year-old multi-tenant property, located in Central Business District (493Q), was designed by Skidmore, Owings & Merrill (312-554-9090) and last renovated in 2001. The property is managed and leased by Hines, while the EcoServices group of Kirksey Architecture (713-850-9600) provided expert assistance to Hines in managing the administrative aspects of the certification process. It is currently 98% leased to tenants including Enterprise Products, Forest Oil Company, King & Spalding, Enbridge Midcoast Energy, and Vitol Inc. The Houston office of SpawMaxwell (713-222-0900) has completed the first phase of expansion/renovation works at Julia Ideson Library, an 83-year-old, 66,000-square-foot historic landmark building, located at 500 McKinney Street in Central Business District (493L), for the City of Houston. The primary additions to the building in this phase include: a four-story, 21,500-square-foot archival wing with a research room on the first floor and high-density shelving space for the Houston Metropolitan Research Center on the remaining floors; and a two-story loggia that offers an open-air seating, an outdoor reading room, and a garden. This new wing is expected to be opened for the public in the first quarter of 2010 as soon as the archives are moved into it. Second and final phase construction will begin with completion of the entire $32 million project scheduled for spring 2011. Subsequently, the project will be applying for LEED™ Silver certification. The project’s architect is Gensler (713-844-0000), while landscape architectural services are being provided by TBG Partners Inc. (713-439-0027). Kimberly Hickson and Lisa Pope Westernman have joined the architecture firm Gensler (713-844-0000) as Project Director and Regional Education Practice Area Leader and Design Director, respectively, in the firm’s Houston hospitality and retail studios. The Situs Cos (713-328-4400) has appointed Jan Sternin as Global Managing Director of Business Development.
Please direct any questions regarding content in the Houston Real Estate Trends to Scott Sherrill at 713-375-4264 or ssherrill@poconnor.com.
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